Democrats Have A Chance To Take Back Texas In 2022

 

     Greg Abbott's administration, especially the past year, has been one series of embarrassing blunders and dangerous lies after the other. In October 2020, seven members of the "Trump Train" attacked the Biden-Harris bus and tried to run it off the road, bragging about it on Twitter and other social media outlets before being sued under the KKK Act and investigated by the FBI. Several members may have been involved in the January 6th insurrection.

     This is just a taste of the political environment in Texas, and it's a unique one, where state politicians still propose secession and where government buildings are powered by a power grid separate from the rest of the country. On that latter point, officials like Abbott who mocked California's suffering from a heat wave blackout in 2020 were reeling when Texas' power grid failed in both the extreme cold and the extreme heat; Abbott's wind power theory in a state run on mostly natural gas did not track.

     What about the issues conservative Texas voters care about? Abbott's first move was to attack the rights of transgender Texans, particularly youth, by banning them from playing sports (and, strangely, mandating genital exams), among other discriminatory laws. Even among Texans, Republicans, and HOMOPHOBES alike, this is not a priority issue. How about his "fetal heartbeat" abortion ban? Similar laws passed by South Carolina and Louisiana have been struck down as unconstitutional by liberal and conservative judges; the anti-trans sports bill conservative Idaho passed met a similar fate. These are both sure to be bitter failures. His voter suppression bill, the harshest and most prolific in the nation, was blocked by Democrats in the legislature, and his response was to defund the body, which is not a good move when you have full control of both houses. A full two years of legal fights is not a good look for Mr. Abbott. His licenseless carry bill? A minor victory, but the soaring crime rates that follow when bills like this pass won't help.

     How about the Trump Train and its allies, the Trumpian faction? No wall was ever built, a stinging blow for the disgraced former president, and Abbott's attempts to build a Texas wall will not make up for the disillusioned people who bought this bigoted idea, should it succeed at all in proceeding. The more moderate Bushes are the only GOP fallback aside from Ronald Reagan, and even Republicans from Texas understand why they are considered below-average presidents. There is no  middle ground, and Abbott cannot rely on Trump supporters or moderate Republicans to save him.

     Even popular bills get vetoed in what appears an increasingly hostile attitude toward the lawmakers Abbott needs to get anything done. He vetoed a bipartisan bill banning dogs from being tethered in the frigid cold or blistering summer heat, resulting in #AbbottHatesDogs trending on social media. In my opinion, his dog Pancake needs a visit from the ASPCA.

     It may seem impossible. Texas has not had a Democratic governor since 1995 and has had only two (each serving one term) since 1973. However, Beto O'Rourke would be a perfect candidate. Incumbent Governor Abbott is clearly intimidated by O'Rourke, as his ads already attack the young "socialist" to raise money. In 2018, O'Rourke's Senate campaign, while unsuccessful in unseating Ted Cruz, garnered national attention that made a presidential primary run possible for the young congressman. His "Beto Effect," similar to the work done by Stacey Abrams in Georgia, cost Republicans 14 seats in the legislature. It would currently take 12 seats (three in the Senate and nine in the House) for Democrats to take full control of the Texas legislature. A slightly smaller repeat of 2018 would give Democrats the ability to control the political agenda completely in Texas.

     As Democratic governors proved in the 2018 Blue Wave, holding the executive mansion is in itself a victory, preventing GOP legislatures from passing Draconian laws without a veto in their way as well as giving the governor executive authority on issues like climate change and LGBTQ rights. In this race, it is not a sure thing for Abbott. He won with 59 percent of the vote in 2014 and 56 percent in 2018, and his recent failures and blunders aforementioned combined with a popular candidate like O'Rourke could make the match even.

     In short, Democrats have a chance to flip Texas partially or entirely blue in 2022, and this is not a race that should be ignored.