Democrats Need Just Four Seats To Gain Full Control Of The Arizona Legislature

     In 2020, President Biden won in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada, six of the swing states of that election (the others being Texas, Ohio, Florida, and Alaska). Each of these ten states will also be important in 2022, and I have done extensive commentary on Wisconsin, Georgia, Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania, in particular. However, one cannot underestimate the importance of the state of Arizona in 2022 and survive politically.

     Arizona was the home state of Barry Goldwater and John McCain, and perhaps it was that latter fact that made Arizona hate Donald Trump so much. John McCain was the popular senator and 2008 nominee for president, and Trump made it his mission to say McCain wasn't a war hero, among other vulgar claims. As retribution, McCain sank Trump's "America First Healthcare Plan," and Trump still decided to show up at McCain's funeral, even though he wasn't welcome, as one final insult.

     The state became, instead, a source of electoral votes for Democrats in presidential elections and home to two Democratic senators, Kyrsten Sinema and Mark Kelly. Though both political moderates, they gave Democrats the Senate majority they currently possess. The bad news for the national GOP is that this is not the only bad news for the Arizona GOP.

     Governor Doug Ducey, of Coldstone Creamery fame, is limited to two terms. Having taken office in 2015, he cannot run again in 2022. This leaves an open field and helps Democrats avoid the mountain of beating the incumbent. Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs is a contender and an obvious choice for the nomination: she came to national prominence for standing up to Donald Trump and paid with threats and stalking perpetrated against her.

     In the legislature, Republicans have a simple majority in both houses: 16-14 in the Senate and 31-29 in the House. If Democrats pick up four seats (two in each house), they will have a simple majority in both houses of the legislature. As we have seen with the voter suppression laws Arizona passed, a simple majority is enough, and Democrats could undo the damage of the Ducey administration and make a stand for voting rights, climate change, racial justice, LGBTQ rights, criminal justice reform, and other priority areas for blue voters and politicians.

     This majority would also allow Democrats to be able to work on the Arizona Supreme Court, which is currently stacked 9-0 in favor of conservatives, and the state judicial branch as a whole. In short, this election is consequential and provides the Democrats an opportunity not seen before, if the cards are played right.