The Minnesota GOP Suffers Its Fourth Major Setback In A Year... And It's Only Going To Get Worse For Them

     The Minnesota GOP is "in ruins," in the words of a former board member. State GOPs in places like Oregon, West Virginia, Arkansas, and Louisiana have already had to undergo their own reckonings. (In the case of the Beaver State, GOP politican Mike Nearman led an assault on the state capitol before pleading guilty to misdemeanor charges, being the first state lawmaker there to be expelled from his seat, and being banned from holding it again.) 

     It looked good for the Minnesota GOP in 2020. Donald Trump managed to turn Minnesota into a swing state, and the GOP hoped to portray themselves as the "law-and-order party" at the epicenter of the Floyd protests. Then, in November, Joe Biden won Minnesota by seven points. With urban voters being heavily Democratic and rural voters heavily Republican, suburban voters, especially in the Midwest, have been the key to winning elections; this is what allowed Trump to win the electoral (if not the popular) vote in 2016. Suburban voters went overwhelmingly for Biden, a complete reversal of what progress Trump had spent millions making in the past six years.

     On April 19th, sympathy poured in from around the country after the death of Minnesota's Walter Mondale, a Democrat who served as vice president under Jimmy Carter from 1977 to 1981 and won only his home state and Washington, D.C., as the 1984 Democratic nominee. 

     On August 12th, 2021, probably the most powerful political figure in the Minnesota GOP, Anthony "Tony" Lazzaro, and several of his acquaintances were arrested on federal charges of sex trafficking of minors and obstruction of justice. These acquaintances included a 19-year-old college student who chaired the St. Thomas Republican Party and was responsible for bringing in most of the party's young voters. If convicted, they all face life in prison. This is the second major GOP figure to be accused of sex trafficking in recent months, after Matt Gaetz of Florida. Lazzaro was a friend of the likes of Tucker Carlson, Mike Pence, and Donald Trump.

     In the wake of this scandal, pressure mounted and forced the resignation of Minnesota GOP Chair Jennifer Carnahan, who was accused of running a toxic work environment in which she covered up reports of sexual harassment against women by male party figures. She decided to cut herself a $38,000 bonus before she left. Carnahan is the wife of Republican U.S. Representative Jim Hagedorn. 

     All of this is coming before the 2022 midterms in which Democratic Governor Tim Walz was already expected to easily win reelection and maintain control of the Minnesota Senate. These scandals will likely drag out for several years and may help Democrats win back the entire state legislature, which would allow them to pass more substantive police reform, marijuana legalization, climate change, voting rights, and other legislation, giving them a more substantive record for 2024 and beyond that could cement their hold of the state in perpetuity. 

     Even state GOP members are worried they have not seen the worst yet: the arrests and resignations are always shocking, but it is when the details of such horrific crimes and scandalous coverups emerge that the general public grows more angry at the institution, in this case the Minnesota GOP, as a whole.