Coronavirus Becomes The Deadliest Event In U.S. History, But Hope Lies In The Weeks Ahead

 

     That's it. That thing Republicans said would never happen, it happened. Coronavirus is now the deadliest event in American history. Any war, any famine, or any disease: COVID has killed more Americans. 715,000 Americans have died of coronavirus since March 2020. The second-deadliest disease, although often reported to be the Spanish flu, is actually HIV/AIDs. As of 2020, HIV killed 700,000 Americans, and it kills an average of 12,000 a year. Even if we assume this year is an unusually deadly one for the HIV pandemic (which has been going on since 1981), coronavirus will kill tens of thousands more Americans who were infected during the September surge of the Delta variant.

     Even as we pass this grim milestone, it is worth noting that hope lies in the weeks ahead. The vaccine has been widely available around the country for six months, and, since then, 66 percent of the total U.S. population, 77 percent of the population over 12, 79 percent of the population over 18, and a whopping 96 percent of the population over 65 has gotten the first dose. If we bet on some people missing second doses, these percentages of people will be FULLY vaccinated by Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, the elderly and those with immunodeficiencies have begun receiving booster shots.

     The FDA fully approving the Pfizer shot, combined with a vaccine mandate that 99 percent of people will follow, has boosted vaccination rates. This week, the FDA is set to vote on boosters for Moderna and Johnson and Johnson vaccines. Moderna's vaccine is set to be fully approved by the end of the month, and children ages five to 11 (who are not yet eligible, explaining the disparity in the rates between the total U.S. population and the U.S. population over 12) should be approved by Thanksgiving, which will prompt tens of millions of people to get vaccinated in the next few weeks and should get America to critical mass by the end of the year. There's even a pill that the FDA will get to consider; as out there as it sounds, it could prompt some people more afraid of needles than COVID, especially those between the ages of 12 and 24, to gain immunity. Meanwhile, as vaccine distribution increases around the world, travel restrictions are beginning to be loosened, starting with the one for Canadians.

     We should aim beyond critical mass of 70, 75, or even 80 percent. This week, Hawaii became the first state to hit 90 percent of all residents over 12 getting their first dose, or 81.5 percent of their total population. We can get 95 percent of eligible residents there fully vaccinated by Christmas, and other states could follow. Of course, conservative states are unlikely to follow. (West Virginia has the lowest vaccination rate in the country, with 56 percent of eligible residents receiving at least their first dose.)  However, even if we balance this out, we should be able to get five out of six Americans fully vaccinated by spring; this would be an amazing feat of modern medicine and innovative government initiatives. 

     A grim milestone for sure, but all the more reason to fight to boost vaccination rates and get America's economy and its medical system out of this horrible pandemic forever. This is the first widespread pandemic Americans have had to experience in the 21st century; WHO just came out with the world's first malaria vaccine, and an HIV vaccine should be available within the next few years. If we can capitalize on this success story and use it against diseases plaguing the world, we have a chance to make this decade the most successful in terms of humanitarianism and public health in human history.