Russia has Lost Nearly 40,000 Troops in Just Four Weeks

     Just days ago, a mistake by a pro-Putin tabloid sent the Russian government scrambling. According to said tabloid, the Russian Defence Ministry admitted to nearly 10,000 troop deaths since its invasion began, a number that has gone up since. The tabloid took down the report swiftly and claimed that they had been "hacked." That's something a 60-year-old white politician would say to cover his ass for a racist comment here in America, or, apparently, what an excuse for an honest journalist on Putin's payroll would say to stop themselves from ending up under a sheet of ice in Siberia.

     Of course, the numbers vary widely. However, it is clear that the United States is underestimating the number of fatalities Russia has suffered. There are roughly 190,000 Russian troops in Ukraine aside from the 50,000 or so separatist forces in Eastern Ukraine. For the sake of this observation, only the former, which, at least in theory, pose the bigger threat, will be counted; the Russian troops are invaders while the separatists are a distinct group of traitors. The United States claims 3,000 to 10,000 Russians have been killed. This admission by Moscow is clear evidence that 10,000 is a minimum. In the past 28 days, Ukraine has claimed that 17,000 Russian troops have been killed. While Ukraine does have motivation to exaggerate, the number of reported casualties is likely on the low end because it is difficult to count fatalities in a war zone; therefore, Ukraine's estimate is likely the best one. The Moscow report put the number of injured Russian troops, troops who will be unable to fight, at 18,000. The number of Russian troops who have deserted or have been captured stands conservatively at 5,000. This represents 40,000 total troops the Russians have lost in four weeks. In less than a month, the Russian invasion has lost 20 to 25 percent of its fighting forces. If Russia wants any reasonable shot at seizing (if not holding) Ukraine, they are going to have to deploy their entire military of 900,000. 

     The fighting has reached a stalemate. However, in a war like this, a stalemate is a victory for the men and women defending their territory. Russia is getting desperate; Ukrainians are fighting for their freedom and their lives while the majority of Russian soldiers are young men ages 18 to 27 who have no reason to fight except that they are required to by Russian law. Ukrainians know the territory; the Russian supply lines are continually dwindling thanks to poor planning and fierce resistance. The Russian soldiers were lied to by their officers, told that the people of Ukraine would welcome them with open arms as "liberators." Instead, they have suffered more casualties than the American military has in its 20 years of war in the Middle East in a single month. It's not just low-level soldiers: Russia sent in generals and admirals to the frontlines to boost morale among soldiers, and, instead, the death of six of the former and two of the latter has drastically lowered it. Security Council members Putin is unhappy with are being arrested as Russia's economy collapses and attempts on Putin's life force him deeper and deeper into isolation; he is desperately trying to establish relations with North Korea. At the current rate, every single Russian troop will be killed, injured, or captured by summer; it won't take that for Ukraine to win militarily, and Putin must decide whether to double down and send in the entirety of his military or go home with his tail between his legs. Russia's troops are spread too thinly to seize and hold onto cities, allowing Ukrainian defenders to launch as many offensives against Russia as Russia has against them.

     President Zelenskyy's leadership, backed by the nearly unanimous support of the rest of the world, is working. If he is willing to forgo NATO for the sake of peace, the United States is in a perfect position to designate Ukraine a major non-NATO ally and continue to supply hundreds of thousands of weapons with millions of rounds of ammunition. The European Union needs to grant Ukraine membership immediately. Any decisions about Eastern Ukrainian territory need to be made via referendum after the bloodshed has stopped and the invaders have left, and, no matter the outcome, the world cannot violate international law and recognize these Russian puppet states. When the war is won, the West needs to commit to using Putin's seized assets to rebuild Ukraine. As Russia continues to lose, it is pounding Ukrainian cities with illegal weapons, killing civilians to lower morale. Don't let them win a war of attrition, my Ukrainian brothers and sisters: avenge each drop of fallen comrade blood with the blood of 100 Russian invaders.