War in Yemen is Second Major Conflict Halted in Two Weeks

     The War in Ukraine, which, at the current rate, cannot and will not be a victory for Vladimir Putin, provided an impetus to address the most pressing foreign policy issues faced by the United States and its allies. Aside from speeding up the strengthening of NATO and the European Union and leading to the designation of Qatar and Colombia as major non-NATO allies (with several more such designations in the works), it turned attention to issues across Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. One hope I have is that this conflict demonstrates the pettiness of the dispute between Northern Ireland and Ireland and that President Biden, an Irish Catholic, is able to assist in the fortification of the Good Friday Agreement in time for its 25th anniversary. 

     As messy as it was, the withdrawal from Afghanistan needed to be done. America had no objectives in the nation after the Taliban was overthrown in early 2002, no sense of purpose. In 2011, Osama bin Laden was killed in Pakistan. It should have ended then, but President Obama knew that, even with tens of thousands of American troops in the country, the security situation was worsening. Americans did not do a good job forming a connection with the Afghan people: the Taliban was getting credit for tens of billions of dollars in funding that built the nation from a third-world country into a middle country. The 2014 election was when it got even worse. Hamid Karzai maintained relative stability as president because he maintained a relationship with the Taliban: while not supporting them, he didn't exactly make it a mission to destroy them either. America had to negotiate the results of the 2014 election to our own advantage just as we negotiated the 2020 Doha Agreement with the Taliban while leaving the Afghan government out of the process completely: having 300,000 troops does no good if the government that put you in power effectively delegitimizes you. There's a reason President Obama launched a new combat mission in Afghanistan in 2015 after the old one ended. The Biden administration dealt with it about as well as it could have: 125,000 refugees were airlifted out of the country and brought to the United States. Between August 2021 and August 2022, the United States is delivering more than $4.5 billion in humanitarian aid to the Afghan people, including $3.5 billion in frozen assets from the Dar Bank, which is more than all other nations put together and represents the largest government humanitarian aid contribution ever. The administration is also delivering $3.5 billion to survivors of 9/11. I'm calling on Congress to swiftly pass two Afghanistan-related bills: the ALLIES Act, which would expedite the visa process for the aforementioned refugees, and the 2001 AUMF Repeal Act, which would, well, repeal the 2001 AUMF for Afghanistan. At the end of the day, a war that killed 45,000 people in 2021 is on track to kill less than 3,000 this year, and it is up to the Taliban to govern a more modern country they know very little about.

     The withdrawal from Iraq in December 2021 went much better. It coincided with a historic summit in the nation on peace and economic development, the first papal visit to the nation to meet with Iraqi Christians, and the lowest number of deaths in the nation since the invasion in 2003. There's a reason President Biden, as early as 2007, had visited Iraq 20 times compared to just four visits to Afghanistan. Iraq, even after the U.S. withdrawal, is making progress in defeating ISIS. The arrests of the ISIL finance minister and the mastermind of the largest bombing in Iraqi history by the government have coincided with the U.S. assassination of ISIS leader Ibrahim al-Qurashi and defeat of an attack on a prison in Syria. ISIS, if appearances are correct, will not be staging a comeback any time soon. Congress needs to pass the 2002 AUMF Repeal Act, which would repeal the AUMF for Iraq.

     President Obama was the first president to address the African Union, and President Biden has taken a similarly active approach to engaging with Africa. In his first 100 days, President Biden designated ISIS-Mozambique and ISIS-DRC as terrorist organizations and sent over 1,100 troops to assist these nations in defeating their respective groups. He reconvened the African Leaders Summit, which had only been held once before, in 2014. He made Africa the priority in implementing the Global Fragility Act: of the nine nations, seven (Togo, Benin, Ghana, Libya, Mozambique, Guinea, and the Ivory Coast) are in Africa. This focus on Coastal West Africa suggests that the United States is preparing to launch an antipiracy and antiterrorism campaign in the region, similar to Operation Ocean Shield and Operation Observant Compass in Somalia and Uganda, respectively. In spite of the claim that no wars started during the Trump administration, close to a dozen armed conflicts started during those four years. Far fewer than the Obama administration, but the Biden administration has seen four break out, a rate that is roughly the same as the Trump administration. One of those conflicts was negotiated to an end almost immediately: the 2021 conflict in Chad, thanks to the United States leading a coalition of nations in diplomacy, ended with the release of the captured president and the launch of a political process in the country. The largest war in the world began in 2020: not the war in Ukraine, but the war in Ethiopia, the Tigray War, a war ridden with atrocities (especially the use of rape as a weapon of war); aside from managing the crisis in Chad, the Biden administration helped bring about a humanitarian truce in Ethiopia, which will help millions of internally displaced persons. Aside from this, political prisoners have been released and a more enduring political process has been launched. The one new war in Africa was settled and one older one resolved for the time being. President Biden has been heavily involved in this conflict resolution: aside from declaring a state of emergency in Ethiopia and sanctioning those responsible for war crimes, he appointed a special envoy to the Horn of Africa and called leaders in Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, and Eritrea urging restraint and dialogue. Today, this furious diplomacy has paid off.

     Just six days later, the War in Yemen was ended for the time being with a two-month truce. I saw this coming: ahead of Ramadan, Secretary Blinken spoke with foreign ministers and heads of state in Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and numerous other nations. Early in his administration, President Biden ended the supply of U.S. weapons to Saudi Arabia that enabled them to wage this war and appointed a special envoy to Yemen. He has, unlike Trump, refused to be completely obsequious to Saudi Arabia and has punished them for their involvement in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi as well as their less direct role in the 9/11 terrorist attacks. He has ended the Trump-escalated bombing campaign that exacerbated the worst humanitarian crisis on the planet, and now the people of Yemen can look forward to a peaceful Ramadan and hopeful peace in perpetuity after a seven-year onslaught.

     Another conflict that arose in 2021 but resolved quickly was a flare-up of tension between Israel and Palestine. It took 11 days and hundreds of phone calls, but a conflict that killed 200 was brought to a close with an unconditional ceasefire. Of course, this conflict has been going on since 1948, While the normalization agreements are a good step, they are only as good as their implementation. That's why, while continuing to negotiate normalization agreements and reestablish U.S. relations with Palestine, Secretary Blinken has participated in a Negev Forum between Jordan, Egypt, Sudan, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Israel to address regional issues in the context of renewed relations. When normalization agreements are subject to a formal signing ceremony, I'm calling on Secretary Blinken to work to bring Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Algeria, Tunisia, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and any other nations into the agreements.

     The last major war that has not been brought to a truce or drastically calmed, aside from the Russo-Ukrainian War, is the Myanmar Insurgency. The U.N. Security Council needs to condemn the actions of the military junta and urge the release of political prisoners and a return to democracy; if this is not done, and it almost certainly won't be with Russia and China having permanent seats; the General Assembly needs to take the necessary action: an arms embargo needs to be imposed to back up words with action. Aside from more rounds of sanctions, which have been issued on top of recognizing military atrocities against the Rohingya as genocide and negotiating the release of two American journalists while providing humanitarian aid, the United States Department of Justice should file criminal charges against the military commanders responsible for the killing of two U.S. aid workers and provide a minimum of $10 million in funding to dissident groups across the country. This needs to become a priority.

     Of course, all of this is in the backdrop of tensions between the United States and China. President Biden signed the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act to ban the import of products made from slave labor in Xinjiang; he negotiated with allies to keep China out of all aspects of the global 5G deployment process; he diplomatically boycotted the 2022 Beijing Olympics; he established the AUKUS agreement to serve as a trilateral defense pact in the Indo-Pacific; launched Build Back Better World to compete with China's Belt and Road program, and much more. 

     A lot of progress has been made on foreign policy in the past few weeks, and this could be a historic year if diplomats in America and across the world continue to work at the feverish pace they have been since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. There's a reason President Biden has been appointing diplomats at an unprecedented rate this year: the moment in foreign policy is now. If we seize the moment, it will be a historic success; if not, well, let's just say it will be one for the history books either way.